Season's Greetings from Trilogy Financial Solutions - December 2025

Much has happened in the investment space over this past year. An AI-driven market surge, bond markets coming down, companies holding steady, opportunities with precious metals, low interest rates, unemployment peaking, to name a few.

The below graphs illustrate the strong upward trend in global equity indexes since early 2023, led by U.S. and Japanese markets, alongside a gradual rise in 10-year bond yields from historic lows, signaling a shift in interest rate dynamics across major economies.

Closer to home, the New Zealand economy is showing green shoots of recovery, supported by improving consumer confidence and easing financial conditions. In the U.S., markets the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 0.25% recently,  putting it in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, as it continues its cautious stance, even as inflation remains elevated (circa 3%) but well below the peaks of recent years. While unemployment has ticked higher globally, it appears to be stabilising, reducing fears of a sharp labor market downturn. Market volatility has also subsided, with the VIX now comfortably below 20, reflecting a more steady risk environment. Currency pressures have also eased; the NZD, which faced headwinds earlier in the year, has begun to recover slightly as expectations for lower interest rates gain traction.

As 2025 draws to a close, markets have demonstrated resilience amid shifting economic conditions, moderating inflation, and easing volatility. While challenges remain, the year has underscored the importance of staying disciplined and diversified.

End of year tips

While we approach a time of rest and recovery (and Christmas shopping), we’d like to provide some tips to keep in mind to ensure you start 2026 on a great note.

• Beware of scams: The holiday season and year-end period often see a spike in fraudulent activity as scammers take advantage of busy schedules and financial transactions. Common tactics include phishing emails, fake investment opportunities, and impersonation scams. Check out the FMA’s Warnings and Alerts page for a non-exhaustive list of the current scams that you should be aware of.

• Think about your goals: Take a moment to review your short-, medium-, and long-term goals. Whether it’s building an emergency fund, saving for a major purchase, or planning for retirement, make sure to write your goals down to make them tangible. Ask yourself if your current strategy aligns with these objectives. Remember, you don’t have to do this alone; we’re here to help.

• Budget for next year: You should already have a clear picture of your income, potential bonuses, and any salary adjustments, so consider how these align with your expenses (fixed and discretionary). Factor in travel plans, major purchases, and other big-ticket items, then ask yourself: Will I have a surplus? If so, decide how to put it to work (e.g. investing, paying down debt, boosting savings etc.).

• Take advantage of compound interest: The earlier you start and the longer you stay invested, the greater the impact. Even small contributions can grow significantly when left to compound. If you’re holding cash or planning for short-term goals, consider options that maximise your returns. We can recommend high-yield savings options that beat what you can get in the banks .

• Make the most of your KiwiSaver: KiwiSaver remains one of the most effective ways to build long-term wealth. It’s pleasing to see the government initiative to increase KiwiSaver contributions from 3% to 4%. We believe that politicians should be working towards increasing these contributions to match with Australia so we can grow our savings pools, to have a more secure retirement. If you can afford more than 3% contributions to your KiwiSaver, you should consider investing at a higher rate to boost your savings. If you’re unsure what approach is best for you, talk to us and we’d be happy to help.

• Enjoy life today: If you’ve been procrastinating on experiences or plans, consider doing them now as tomorrow isn’t guaranteed. At the same time, if worries about your financial future are holding you back, let us help. We can work with you to create a financial plan that gives you peace of mind, so you can enjoy today knowing your future is secure.

Office shutdown and staff update

Trilogy’s last day of business for the year will be Friday, 19 December 2025, and we will be back on Monday, 5 January 2026.

For any urgent enquiries during this period, please contact us at info@trilogyfs.co.nz. We will respond as soon as possible.

Planning any transactions before the holidays? Let us know by December 16th so we can organise this for you.

Our team will be taking time off for some well-deserved rest and relaxation.

Please read on to find out what our staff will be up to during the holiday break.

Chiti

Thank you for your support in 2025! As the festive season approaches, I’d like to extend my warmest wishes for a joyful Christmas and a prosperous New Year. We truly appreciate your trust and partnership throughout a year that brought strong opportunities across global markets, despite some volatility. Highlights included resilient infrastructure assets, renewed strength in emerging markets, and a solid European rebound, underscoring the value of diversification and discipline. On a personal note, I’m excited to spend the summer fulfilling a long-held dream: exploring Africa’s wildlife on a safari, a perfect way to recharge for the year ahead.

We look forward to continuing to support our clients’ goals with care and commitment in 2026. Wishing you a wonderful holiday season!

Steve

My oldest daughter, Pippa, is home from Bristol for Christmas, so it’ll be wonderful to have all three of my daughters together in Auckland on Christmas Day. With three strong, confident personalities around the table, the day is always lively — and I may well need a recovery break afterwards. So Roz and I will head up to our family bach in the Far North, where I’ll be continuing my training for the Motatapu marathon in Central Otago next March.

Adrian

Adrian will be enjoying both playing and coaching cricket over the holidays and enjoying a family trip to Melbourne for the New Year. He’ll be representing Auckland Over 50s in a 4-day tournament and coaching at the Cornwall Cricket Club, where Trilogy Financial Solutions supports the cricket programme.

Andrew

Andrew will be having an eventful end-of-year break, starting with his wedding just this past weekend in Whitford. This will be followed by Christmas with family in Auckland. Andrew and his wife, Robyn, will spend New Year’s in the Cook Islands for their honeymoon.

Jerome

Jerome and his family will be enjoying the holiday break in Auckland. He’s looking forward to taking his 1-year-old daughter to some beaches and playgrounds. He’s also planning to spend time on the tennis courts and make the most of the summer weather.

Waruni

Waruni and her husband, Nuwan, are planning an exciting trip to explore parts of the North Island they haven’t visited before, including visiting Hobbiton for the first time. They’re looking forward to spending time hiking and enjoying nature. They hope to relax, have fun, and create lasting memories together.

Thank you

Thanks for sticking with us throughout 2025! We truly appreciate your trust and support. We wish you and your family a joyful festive season, and we look forward to working with you, refreshed and ready for an amazing 2026.

If there is anything urgent during the holiday period, please contact us at info@trilogyfs.co.nz. We will respond as soon as possible.

Kind regards,

Trilogy Team