- 14 minutes ago
With KiwiSaver updates, a new Fed Chair, and volatile precious metal prices, change seems to be the emerging theme of 2026.
As these changes unfold across policy, leadership, and markets, they create both challenges and opportunities for investors navigating an increasingly dynamic environment.
In this update we break down the recent and upcoming KiwiSaver adjustments, explore what changes at the Federal Reserve may mean for the global outlook, and examine the drivers behind the latest market moves, including the sharp movements in silver and gold prices. We also have an update from Adrian regarding mortgage lending rates.
We invite you to read on for insights that can help you stay informed, adaptable, and positioned for whatever comes next.
If you have any queries or concerns about how your investments are faring in the current markets or your financial, investment, lending, or retirement planning matters, please feel free to give our office a call at 09 553 8928 or email us at info@trilogyfs.co.nz.
Sincerely,
The Team at Trilogy Financial Solutions
KiwiSaver changes
We are fast approaching the date of the first KiwiSaver contribution rate increase since April 2013.
This increase is great news for KiwiSaver members, as it means retirement savings should grow faster and larger over time.
The changes to the default KiwiSaver contribution rates will occur on the following dates:
From 1 April 2026, the default rate will be 3.5% (from 3%).
From 1 April 2028, the default rate will be 4.0% (from 3.5%).
This new rate will apply to both employees and employers.
Although these rates are still behind Australia’s Super contribution rate (12%), this is certainly a step in the right direction to ensure Kiwis retire comfortably.
Those that wish to maintain their existing contribution rate can consider applying for a temporary rate reduction via myIR. Members could apply from 1 February 2026 and the rate reduction would start from 1 April 2026.
See the page below for more information:Temporary rate reduction
Please get in touch if you have any questions regarding these KiwiSaver changes or for any advice regarding your KiwiSaver portfolio.
Kevin Warsh appointed Fed Chair
President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair has drawn global attention, given Warsh’s blend of policymaking experience and market credibility.
Warsh’s background includes:
Former Fed Governor (2006–2011)
Experience at Morgan Stanley in investment banking
Adviser in the George W. Bush administration
Academic roles at Stanford’s Hoover Institution
He takes a traditionally hawkish stance on inflation but has recently been more open to rate cuts. This suggests potential shifts in how the Fed might balance growth and inflation risks going forward.
Warsh has been critical of the Fed’s reliance on backward‑looking data and its “bloated” balance sheet, advocating for a leaner, more forward‑focused approach to monetary policy. However, the path ahead isn’t without uncertainty: his Senate confirmation faces political friction, which could itself generate market volatility, and the degree to which he can influence the broader Federal Open Market Committee remains an open question.
For NZ investors, the key watchpoints will be:
Potential shifts in the pace and direction of U.S. rate cuts
Reactions from global bond markets
Knock‑on effects on currency movements and risk sentiment
Lending update by Adrian
The question I’m most asked is “Where will mortgages go in 2026?”
New Zealand’s main banks don’t entirely agree on the answer to that question, so what chance do I have!
What we all seem to agree on is that we are at the bottom of the most recent interest cycle.
Since August 2024, the Reserve Bank has cut the OCR 9 times, but the chance of further cuts looks nonexistent.
Banks are not necessarily predicting an increase in the OCR until later this year, but this won’t stop interest rates from rising before that happens. Banks will (and have already started) to ‘price in’ expected future rate rises. The most common viewpoint is that all fixed-term rates will start moving upwards, reaching 5% across all options from mid-2026.
For borrowers coming off of-fixed term loans in the first half of 2026, you should be seeking advice on borrowing strategies that include longer-term fixed-rate periods, which are comparatively good value.
- Adrian Dale, Mortgage Specialist
Market Update
New Zealand
NZX 50 up 0.3% to around 13,486, trimming recent losses but still soft over the past month.
Trading remained relatively muted, with investors cautious ahead of local economic data releases.
U.S.
Major indices firmer, with the S&P 500 up about 0.5% and the Dow at fresh highs as large caps rebound.
Tech names led gains on renewed interest in growth stocks, while defensives lagged.
Australia
ASX 200 slightly weaker, down about 0.2% near 8,894 as resource and rate concerns weigh on sentiment.
Financials were mixed, with the big banks easing after recent strength.
Asia
Nikkei 225 stronger, recently up about 2.4% above 57,700, supported by exporters and a softer yen.
Hang Seng trading near 26,993, up about 1.6% on improved risk appetite in Chinese equities.
Europe
STOXX Europe 600 near 617, up roughly 0.9%, supported by gains across financials and industrials.
Energy and consumer names added support as investors rotated into cyclical sectors.
Precious metals
Gold dropped about 10% in the recent sell-off before rebounding 2.2–3% to around USD 4,767–4,770 per ounce.
Silver fell more sharply, down 30–36% at the lows before jumping 5.9–8.8% to roughly USD 83.8–84.1 per ounce, with some intraday reports showing even larger swings.
Upcoming important dates
18 February
Next OCR announcement
20 February
TFS off-site team building(Note, the team will be unavailable on this day.)
31 March
End of Financial Year 2026
20 May - 10 June
TFS Quarter 2 review season
