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Trilogy Financial Solutions Update – February 2023

After a challenging 2022, we hope you had a great festive season and a relaxing new year, ready to embrace whatever 2023 may hold. Unfortunately, we know the year is already off to a rocky start for many. After a summer with less Covid fear, Kiwis are kept thinking, “what’s next?” as unprecedented weather has hammered the north of the country with more forecast in the next week as we all keep an eye on the movement of Cyclone Gabrielle. Trilogy would like to extend our condolences to everyone who has been badly affected by the flood and ask you to please get in touch if we can be of any assistance. We’d like everyone affected by the flood to be aware that banks are putting in place assistance packages for families and businesses. Banks differ, but the support may include:

  • Reviewing home lending facilities.

  • Personal overdraft if you’re waiting on an insurance pay out and need funds urgently.

  • Access to temporary overdrafts for small businesses and commercial customers.

Please contact if you feel any of this support may be applicable to you and our lending specialist, Adrian, will be happy to get in touch. The investment year has gotten off to a welcome, positive start. Wall Street had its best January since 2001 with the S&P rising around 6%. The US technology-driven Nasdaq Composite, battered last year, has surged around 14% since the new year with Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms rising 43% and Tesla’s share price rising an astonishing 90% year-to-date. Only time will tell how permanent these gains are as it is now well reported how high inflation has led central banks to aggressively increase interest rates, which continue to weigh on the short-term returns of both bond and share markets. However, recent data is starting to reveal some softening in other areas of the global economy with retail sales slowing due to higher mortgage rates and NZ unemployment slightly rising in the final quarter of 2022. On February 1, the United States Fed hiked their rate for the seventh time since May last year to 4.75% with analysts expecting it to continue rising throughout 2023. This year we will see the degree to which these hikes affect the wider economy. With rates of inflation flattening or beginning to fall we may see interest rates starting to peak as soon as mid-2023. However, it is important to note that, for now, the Reserve Bank of NZ and Fed Reserve in the US remain hawkish, expecting the rates to go up, as they remain focussed on bringing inflation under control. Although data is trending in the right direction, inflation is still far above the central bank’s 2% target. With uncertainty around rate hikes in 2022 causing concern in markets and creating volatility, as we enter the new year, the light at the end of the tunnel seems to be getting clearer. Last month we got the very important Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from which we learned that inflation was flat in NZ at 7.2%. In the US it continues to trend lower, declining to 6.5% from 7.1% the month prior. In looking at the components of inflation, goods inflation continues to decline but services and inflation related to shelter remain elevated. We need to see downward movement of all components prior to any reduction in rates. Trading Economics NZ Inflation Projection

Trading Economics US Inflation Projection

Check your Prescribed Investor Rate (PIR) each year Many of our investment funds, including our KiwiSaver funds, are Portfolio Investment Entities (PIEs), the amount of tax you pay on income from PIEs depends on your PIR. It’s important to check your PIR annually, as well as prior to any fund switches, transfers or exits, and keep us informed. Your PIR can be calculated using the chart below.

If you feel your PIR may need updating, you can go online and alter it directly with your investment provider or let us know and we can assist you with the change.

Looking ahead

Warren Buffet (investor guru) once said “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect”. This means a disciplined investor is a wealthy investor because they have learned that market fluctuations are normal and that patience pays off.

We are incredibly appreciative of the trust our clients put in us to weather the storm of 2022 with them. We look forward to continuing to serve you to our high, Trilogy standard throughout 2023 and the better times which hopefully come with it.

Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions.

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